StashAway's Q1 2026 Returns

The first quarter of 2026 was marked by sharp swings across markets, driven by a mix of policy uncertainty and geopolitics. Early in the quarter, investors were rattled by renewed tariff threats and broader questions around US policy direction. By late February and March, attention shifted to the war in the Middle East, which drove a sharp jump in oil and gas prices, lifted inflation expectations, and put pressure on both equities and bonds. (For more, read: CIO Insights: Navigating Dire Straits.)

These dynamics created a challenging backdrop across asset classes, as illustrated below in Chart 1. Equities started the year on a strong footing but weakened as policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment, with the S&P 500 ending the quarter down roughly 3%. At the same time, the surge in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher, driving bond yields up and leading to losses across fixed income. In contrast, commodities were a bright spot. Gold gained around 7% over the quarter, though with sharp swings along the way, as safe-haven demand was at times offset by a stronger US dollar, rising yields, and periodic profit-taking.

Against this backdrop, diversified portfolios proved their resilience. Our General Investing portfolios (GI) delivered modest positive returns in USD terms of up to 0.7% (0.4% on average) before fees or up to 0.5% (0.3% on average) after fees through a volatile quarter, while experiencing smaller drawdowns than traditional benchmarks. This outperformance was driven by asset allocation: exposures to gold, cash equivalents, and selected sector and geographic positions contributed positively – and helped cushion losses during the March sell-off. In contrast, traditional equity-bond benchmarks declined by approximately -1.2% to -3.1% (-2% on average). As a result, GI portfolios outperformed by an average of 2.4 percentage points before fees (2.3 percentage points after fees) in Q1, as illustrated in Chart 2. 

This is driven by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA™) investment framework. By positioning portfolios across global equities, bonds, and gold based on the prevailing macro environment, ERAA™ helps manage risks such as inflation shocks and geopolitical uncertainty – while ensuring portfolios remain broadly diversified and resilient across market cycles.

Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed to-date 2026:

• General Investing and Goal-based Investing (These two portfolios share similar asset allocation)
• Thematic Portfolios

General Investing and Goal-based Investing portfolios

StashAway's General Investing (GI) portfolios, guided by ERAA™, held up well through a volatile first quarter, delivering modest positive returns while traditional equity-bond benchmarks declined. The portfolios returned 0.4% on average before fees or 0.3% after fees in USD terms (5.1% before fees and 4.9% after fees in THB terms), compared to average benchmark returns of -2.0%.

Over the rolling 12 months to 31 March 2026, the portfolios delivered solid returns of 15.2% on average before fees or 14.6% after fees in USD terms (12.0% before fees and 11.3% after fees in THB terms), compared to 14.0% for their benchmarks.

Our asset allocation mix cushioned a volatile quarter

Q1 2026 was a challenging quarter. Geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher and lifted inflation expectations, which in turn drove bond yields up. At the same time, policy uncertainty and a risk-off sentiment weighed on equities. 

In this environment, our asset allocation helped cushion returns. Gold was the strongest contributor, with additional support from sectors such as consumer staples, energy, as well as aerospace and defense. These were partly offset by weakness in some geographic exposures such as broad-US and Indian equities, as well as growth-oriented sectors such as technology – which came under pressure amid rising yields and concerns about AI disruption.

The result was modest positive returns where the benchmarks declined. While not a blockbuster quarter, it was the kind of outcome a well-diversified portfolio is designed to deliver through turbulence (read more in our CIO Insights: Not every Trump card wins).

Chart 3 shows how our portfolios’ allocations to stabilising assets like gold and ultra-short dated Treasuries helped limit volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns across all risk levels, with especially strong benefits for lower-risk portfolios. On average, our portfolios (the blue bars below) generated 1.9 times the return per unit of risk, compared with 1.5 times for their benchmarks (the grey bars). For our investors, that translates into a smoother journey through market swings, making it easier to stay invested.

Gold helped portfolios stay resilient through a volatile quarter

Gold was a key source of our portfolios’ outperformance in the first quarter of 2026, with the asset class gaining 7% over the period. Its performance was driven by opposing forces over the quarter: geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns supported prices at times, while a stronger US dollar and higher real yields weighed on them, including during a selloff in early March. Speculative, momentum-driven trading was also an important force in both the recent  run-up and partial pullback. 

Looking over a longer period, gold’s strong performance amid policy and political uncertainty has made it one of the largest contributors to portfolio returns over the past 12 months. Bigger government spending has kept longer-term inflation risks elevated, while strong central bank buying provided a steady source of demand. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and expectations of eventual rate cuts helped support prices by limiting the rise in real yields.

Global and sector exposures supported equity returns 

Equity performance in Q1 2026 was uneven across regions and sectors. Developed markets outside the US proved more resilient, with Japan being a notable bright spot over the quarter. At the sector level, US consumer staples led gains on the back of their defensive characteristics, while energy, industrials, as well as aerospace and defence also contributed, supported by higher oil prices and sustained demand tied to infrastructure and defence spending.

Broad US and Indian equities were the main detractors; broad indices such as the S&P 500 and global equities declining over the quarter. Technology also came under pressure, as higher yields weighed on growth-oriented stocks, while concerns that rapid AI advances could disrupt traditional software business models added to the weakness.

Over the 12 months to end-March, equity returns broadened beyond a narrow group of leaders. While global equities and technology remained key contributors, cyclical sectors such as industrials, as well as aerospace and defence played a larger role. As shown in Chart 4, this shift reflects a wider set of sectors and regions driving returns.

Bonds came under pressure as rate cut expectations were pushed back

Fixed income faced a challenging start to 2026 as rising yields weighed on bond prices. This was most evident in global aggregate bonds and global government bonds, which detracted modestly across portfolios. That said, ultra-short-duration exposures contributed positively, helping to cushion declines. Inflation-linked bonds were broadly flat, limiting the overall drawdown from fixed income.

Over the 12 months to end-March, bonds continued to support portfolio stability and income. Ultra-short-duration government bonds and high-yield credit were consistent contributors, while emerging market debt and global aggregate bonds also added to returns. Inflation-linked bonds contributed modestly over the period, reflecting persistently elevated inflation expectations. 

Thematic Portfolios

Our Thematic Portfolios offer direct exposure to long-term structural trends, from AI and digitalisation to healthcare and the energy transition. Because of this targeted exposure, they can be more sensitive to market cycles, which was reflected in the first quarter of the year. Environment and Cleantech stood out as the top performer, supported by continued interest in nuclear energy as a clean solution to rising power demands from AI.

Technology Enablers

The Technology Enablers portfolios posted returns of -7.1% on average before fees and -7.2% after fees in USD terms (-2.8% before fees and -2.9% after fees in THB terms) over the first quarter of 2026.

Across the 12 month period, it posted returns of 17.5% on average before fees and 16.7% after fees in USD terms (14.2% before fees and 13.5% after fees in THB terms).

The Technology Enablers portfolios declined in Q1, driven primarily by weakness in software. Cloud and software companies were the largest detractors, as concerns around AI disruption and shifting competitive dynamics weighed on valuations. In contrast, semiconductor exposures contributed positively, supported by sustained demand for AI hardware and infrastructure. Over the past 12 months, the portfolios delivered strong returns, supported by continued investment in AI infrastructure, alongside strength in blockchain and semiconductor-related companies.

Future of Consumer Tech

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios saw first quarter 2026 returns of -8.0% on average before fees and -8.1% after fees in USD terms (-3.7% before fees and -3.9% after fees in THB terms). 

Meanwhile, it had returns of 8.0% on average before fees and 7.4% after fees in USD terms (5.0% before fees and 4.4% after fees in THB terms) over the 12 month period. 

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios also declined in the first quarter. Fintech was the largest detractor, followed by future mobility, gaming, and internet platforms. This reflects a broader repricing across consumer-facing technology, as investors reassessed growth expectations and competitive dynamics, including the potential impact of AI. Over the past 12 months, the portfolios delivered stronger gains. Performance was driven by autonomous transportation, followed by gaming and digital consumption, while fintech was a detractor over the period.

Healthcare Innovation

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios posted returns of -1.8% on average before fees and -2.0% in USD terms (2.7% before fees and 2.6% after fees in THB terms) in the quarter. 

Meanwhile, it had returns of 14.3% on average before fees and 13.6% after fees in USD terms (11.1% before fees and 10.4% after fees in THB terms) over the 12 month period. 

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios ended the first quarter lower. The main drag came from medical devices, while biotech and pharmaceutical exposures were broadly stable. Over the past 12 months, the portfolios delivered solid returns. Performance was supported by strength in biotech and pharmaceuticals, supported by increased M&A activity and continued momentum in areas such as weight loss drugs and new therapies.

Environment and Cleantech

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios saw returns of 2.1% on average before fees and 2.0% after fees in USD terms (6.9% before fees and 6.7% after fees in THB terms) in the quarter. 

Meanwhile, it had returns of 31.7% on average before fees and 30.9% after fees in USD terms (28.0% before fees and 27.3% after fees in THB terms) over the 12 month period. 

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios stood out in Q1 2026, delivering positive returns even as broader markets declined. This was due to strength in energy-related segments, particularly nuclear, clean energy and infrastructure-linked sectors. Over the past 12 months, the portfolios were the strongest performers among our thematic strategies. Rising interest in nuclear energy and clean infrastructure fuelled gains as the AI buildout and shift to clean energy picked up pace.

Disclaimers:

*Our same-risk benchmarks are proxied by FTSE All-World Index for Growth and FTSE World Government Bond TRI for Protective. Find our investment policy and performance of model portfolios here.

Model portfolio returns are expressed net of management fee, custodian fees and other related expenses but before withholding taxes, capital gain taxes. and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.

As we operate with a progressive management fee structure, the management fee used in the model portfolio return calculation reflects the average fee effectively charged by the company. Full details of fees and expenses charged for services under the investment policy can be found at https://www.stashaway.co.th/th-TH/pricing.

Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.

Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice. Foreign investments are subject to currency fluctuations.

This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.

This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.