StashAway’s Q3 2025 Returns

Following a volatile first half of the year, markets in Q3 saw broad-based gains across most major asset classes. Gold continued to soar as investors sought safety amid ongoing global uncertainty. Equities also posted solid returns, supported by resilient earnings and AI-related optimism, while bonds ended the quarter broadly unchanged. Together, these trends, highlighted in Chart 1 below, created a supportive backdrop for diversified portfolios.

Amid this “everything rally”, our flagship General Investing portfolios continued to post solid gains – with year-to-date returns in USD terms ranging from 7.3% before fees (6.8% after fees) for our lower-risk, bond-focused portfolios to 18.7% before fees (18.1% after fees) for our most aggressive, equity-focused portfolio. That resulted in returns of 14.1% before fees (13.6% after fees) on average, outperforming traditional equity-bond benchmarks.

This consistent performance is driven by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA™) investment framework, which manages macroeconomic risk while ensuring that your portfolios remain diversified across global equities, bonds, and gold.

Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed in Q3 2025:

• General Investing and Goal-based Investing (These two portfolios share similar asset allocation)
• Thematic Portfolios 

General Investing and Goal-based Investing portfolios

StashAway’s General Investing (GI) portfolios, guided by ERAA™, delivered solid, positive returns in Q3. The portfolios returned 4.4% on average before fees, or 4.2% on average after fees  in USD terms (4.0% before fees and 3.9% after fees in THB terms) compared to average returns of 4.6% for their same-risk benchmarks in USD terms (excluding fees typically charged by mutual funds, which average 1–2% annually) and 3.7% for a traditional equity/bond-only benchmark.

Over the past 12 months, the portfolios also posted strong absolute returns across all risk levels, with gains of 10.8% on average before fees, or 10.1% on average after fees in USD terms (11.6% before fees and 10.9% after fees in THB terms) versus 11.7% for their respective same-risk benchmarks in USD terms and 9.1% for a traditional equity/bond benchmark.

Diversification continued to pay off in Q3, with gold leading portfolio gains

Diversification doesn’t just protect portfolios in volatile markets – it can also enhance returns when multiple asset classes rally together. That was the case in Q3, when broad gains across equities, gold, and other assets lifted portfolio performance. Rather than relying on a single driver, our diversified GI portfolios benefited from multiple sources of return. 

In particular, our structural allocation to gold – which we implemented in April 2024 – continued to benefit portfolios, though for a different reason this quarter. In H1, gold helped cushion volatility during periods of market stress (i.e., “Liberation Day”) – in Q3, it became a key performance driver as investors sought safe-haven assets amid economic and political uncertainty. This reinforces gold’s role not only as a defensive diversifier, but also as an asset that can participate meaningfully in portfolio gains.

Chart 2 below shows how including gold – as well as ultra-short-dated Treasuries – in our benchmarks has improved risk-adjusted returns across all portfolio types, with particularly strong benefits for lower-risk portfolios. Year-to-date, our gold-inclusive benchmarks (navy blue) have outperformed traditional equity-bond benchmarks (grey), delivering higher returns for each unit of risk taken. This reflects how gold has played different roles in 2025 – providing stability in periods of stress, and contributing to returns during the current rally.

Gold continued to rally on safe-haven and central bank demand

Gold's performance in Q3 capped off one of its strongest years on record. The precious metal gained another 15% during the quarter, bringing year-to-date returns to approximately 45%. This contributed between 0.5 and 1.6 percentage points (ppt.) to our GI portfolios’ returns over the quarter, and between 1.3 and 4.4 percentage points for the year-to-date.

Several factors drove the sustained rally. Trade tensions continued to create uncertainty about global growth prospects. Meanwhile, US inflation has remained sticky in the upper-2% range despite the Federal Reserve signaling more interest rate cuts – a dynamic where gold has benefited from both inflation fears and the prospect of falling yields. Central banks also supported demand as they diversified away from US Treasuries amid concerns on US fiscal sustainability. Broader investor demand also strengthened, with inflows into gold ETFs gaining momentum through the quarter as investors increased their exposure.

For our ERAA™-managed portfolios, gold allocations have performed a dual role: generating returns while providing protection against market risks. The structural forces supporting the asset class suggest any pullbacks may present opportunities for long-term investors.

Equities extended gains, with AI momentum helping the US close the gap

Equities were a key driver of portfolio returns in Q3 as both global and US markets advanced. The rally was broad-based, but the most significant shift for our portfolios was the US market catching up after lagging in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 rose 8.1% during the quarter – ahead of global equities excluding the US, which gained 6.7%. 

Our broad global equity exposure, which captures both US and non-US markets, was the single largest contributor, adding up to 1.3 percentage points to total returns, while our core S&P 500 and global equities ex-US exposures each contributing as much as 1 ppt.

For the US, AI was a major driver of market sentiment and performance throughout Q3. This was reflected clearly in sector performance: information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary – all closely linked to AI adoption – posted some of the strongest gains, shown below in Chart 3. Together, our exposure to these tech-related sectors contributed around 1 percentage point to overall portfolio returns.

The quarter reinforced that market leadership can and does rotate. Investors positioned solely for US outperformance would have struggled through H1's rotation, while those avoiding the US entirely would have missed Q3's tech-driven rally. Our GI portfolios, which diversify across geographies and sectors, captured US equity gains in Q3 while maintaining exposure to opportunities elsewhere.

Looking ahead, corporate earnings are set to pick up into 2026 – with analysts expecting forward earnings growth to accelerate to more than 8% for global equities and 10% for the S&P 500. We expect AI investment to remain a structural tailwind for parts of the equity market, supporting demand for semiconductors, data centers, and power infrastructure. 

Over time, the broader adoption of AI across industries could also lift productivity and margins, helping to extend profit growth beyond the tech sector. Early signs are positive, but as always, diversification remains the most reliable strategy for capturing returns wherever they emerge.(For more on our take on AI, see: 2025 Macro Outlook: “FAT” is the new normal.)

ERAA™’s bond allocations saw steady gains

In fixed income, our diversified allocations delivered steady, positive returns in Q3:

• Ultra-short US Treasuries continued to anchor performance, contributing 0.4 percentage points to returns in our most conservative, bond-focused portfolio. Despite the Fed's rate cut in September, short-term Treasury yields remain around 4% – still elevated by historical standards – and carry minimal duration and credit risk.
• High-yield bonds added up to 0.3 ppt to returns, supported by solid corporate fundamentals and default rates that have remained relatively contained.
• Emerging market bonds also contributed to our portfolios’ performance, supported by stable fundamentals and continued investor demand for higher-yielding debt.

With markets expecting two more Fed rate cuts before year-end, conditions for bonds remain supportive. For our portfolios, our bond exposure should continue to help manage overall risk and generate steady income as policy conditions ease.

Thematic Portfolios

Thematic assets saw strong performance in Q3 as global rate cuts reignited investor appetite for risk. AI spending showed no sign of slowing, which has also boosted demand for clean energy as investors increasingly recognised it as a critical input to AI's expansion. Elsewhere, blockchain saw a surge of interest with stablecoins, while healthcare benefited from renewed interest in biotech and steady momentum in pharmaceuticals.

Technology Enablers

The Technology Enablers portfolios posted returns of 6.8% on average before fees and  6.6% after fees in USD terms (6.4% before fees and 6.3% after fees in THB terms) for Q3. Over the past 12 months, they were up  29.9% on average before fees and 29.1% after fees in USD terms (30.8% before fees and 30.0% after fees in THB terms).

Blockchain-led portfolio performance in Q3, with the exposure contributing up to 2.8 ppt to returns. The sub-sector has been supported by increased risk appetite and interest in digital assets like stablecoins, and has seen increased regulatory support in recent months. The portfolios’ allocations to the semiconductor and AI sub-sectors also added to portfolio returns – or up to 1.8 ppt and 1.6 ppt, respectively, during the quarter. That came amid the continued buildout of AI infrastructure and record earnings from chip manufacturers like Nvidia and TSMC.

Future of Consumer Tech

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios saw returns of 4.8% on average before fees and 4.6% after fees in USD terms (4.5% before fees and 4.3% after fees in THB terms) for Q3. Over the past 12 months, they were up 23.9% on average before fees and 23.5% after fees in USD terms (24.8% before fees and 24.1% after fees in THB terms).

The future mobility and gaming sectors were the top contributors within the portfolio this quarter, adding up to 3.1 ppt and 2.9 ppt, respectively. In future mobility, performance was driven by strong gains among leading technology companies like Intel and Alphabet, and electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla, supported by continued innovation in autonomous systems and sustained demand for next-generation transportation solutions. Gaming  benefited from  gains among leading platform and content developers – including AppLovin, Unity, and Roblox – supported by sustained engagement across mobile and online gaming ecosystems.

Healthcare Innovation

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios posted returns of 4.8% on average before fees and 4.6% after fees in USD terms (4.5% before fees and 4.3% after fees in THB terms) for Q3. Over the past 12 months, they were up 0.1% on average before fees and -0.5% after fees in USD terms (0.9% before fees and 0.3% after fees in THB terms).

The healthcare sector recovered in Q3 after a muted first half. The portfolios’ exposures to biotech led gains as renewed risk appetite, strong clinical results, and a pickup in M&A likely contributed to confidence in the sector. Pharmaceuticals also delivered moderate gains, led by names like Johnson & Johnson and Abbvie. In contrast, our exposure to the medical devices sub-sector detracted from performance amid regulatory uncertainty and margin pressures – with its largest holdings posting declines during the quarter. In contrast, medical devices lagged, likely as the sub-sector came under pressure from rising input costs, persistent tariffs, and delays in regulatory approvals.

(For more, see: CIO Insights: A pulse check on the healthcare sector.)

Environment and Cleantech

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios saw returns of 8.7% on average before fees and 8.5% after fees in USD terms (8.3% before fees and 8.2% after fees in THB terms) for Q3. Over the past 12 months, they were up 9.9% on average before fees and 9.2% after fees in USD terms (10.7% before fees and 10.0% after fees in THB terms).

The cleantech sector posted strong gains in Q3, driven by a key shift in clean energy's role: reliable, carbon-free power to fuel the AI boom. Uranium companies led gains – contributing up to 11.4 ppt to the portfolios’ during the quarter – as nuclear energy emerged as a powerful solution to meet surging electricity demand from data centers. Broader clean energy and smart grid exposures also contributed, likely underpinned by AI demand, as well as demand from the energy transition for solar, wind, and power grid upgrades. Future mobility rounded off performance, amid strong performance from leading tech companies and EV manufacturers.

Disclaimers:

*Our same-risk benchmarks are proxied by FTSE All-World Index for Growth (Prior to 31 July 2024 are proxied by MSCI All Country World Index and prior to 1 March 2023 are proxied by MSCI World Equity Index TRI) and FTSE World Government Bond TRI for Protective. After 24 April 2024, we added Bloomberg 1-3 Month US Treasury Bill Index for ST Treasuries and Bloomberg Gold Subindex Total Return Index for Gold to the benchmark. The benchmarks we use have the same 10-years realised volatility as our portfolios.

Model portfolio returns are expressed net of management fee, custodian fees and other related expenses but before withholding taxes, capital gain taxes. and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.

As we operate with a progressive management fee structure, the management fee used in the model portfolio return calculation reflects the average fee effectively charged by the company. Full details of fees and expenses charged for services under the investment policy can be found at https://www.stashaway.co.th/th-TH/pricing.

Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.

Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice.

This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.

This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.