Weekly Buzz: Banking turmoil, stubborn inflation, and a tough choice for the Fed
🔍 What the current banking turmoil means for the Fed and markets
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and closure of Signature Bank last weekend was caused by a combination of their outsized exposure to the US tech sector; rapid interest rate hikes, which caused banks to make losses on long-term government debt; and an asset-liability mismatch, which led to runs on these banks (more on that below). Trouble at Credit Suisse further stoked fears of contagion in the global banking sector.
The US quickly stepped in to backstop its banking sector, and the Swiss central bank has provided short-term liquidity to allow Credit Suisse to continue operations. But these issues illustrate weaknesses in the economy that are being uncovered in part due to aggressive interest rate hikes from global central banks over the past year.
The events in the banking sector are still ongoing, but here’s what our investment team is paying close attention to:
What the bank failures mean for the economy and markets
Given the heightened economic and market uncertainty, consumers and businesses are likely to tighten their belts – damping economic activity. On top of that, the banking sector is likely to protect its balance sheets with stricter lending standards, making it harder for borrowers to access funds – weighing on bank profitability and also on the broader economy. And don’t forget: the impact of the Fed’s rapid 450 bps in rate hikes since last March is still working its way through the economy, so we could still see market volatility in the weeks and months ahead.
Our ERAA™-managed portfolios are well-positioned for the uncertain environment – in December, we reoptimised our portfolios to add exposure to defensive assets like short-duration US Treasuries, global investment-grade bonds, and healthcare equities
What the events mean for the Fed’s rate hike path
After these events, markets are now pricing in the possibility of no hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting and rate cuts starting around mid-year. That contrasts with just a week earlier, when markets were expecting a 50 bps hike this month, and saw limited scope for rate cuts this year. This underscores the Fed’s tricky task of balancing its fight against inflation and safeguarding financial stability.
In our view, those two objectives are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Given that the Fed has a wider arsenal of tools at its disposal to manage financial stability concerns, it could continue to deploy them as it continues to raise interest rates to rein in inflation — as long as inflation remains high.
📈 And stubborn inflation isn’t making the Fed’s job any easier…
US consumer prices remained elevated in February: the overall CPI gained 0.4% month-on-month in February (or 6% year-on-year). But the pickup in the core inflation reading, which excludes food and energy prices, to 0.5% month-on-month (or 5.5% year-on-year) was more worrying. That’s because it was driven mainly by core services, which tends to be “stickier” than other categories – and is the sort of inflation that the Fed wants to avoid. All eyes are now on what the Fed will decide at its 21-22 March meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 25 bps hike.
A note about your funds at StashAway
Rest assured that your funds and. Your funds and securities are held in custodial accounts at Kasikorn Bank, Citibank and HSBC.
Our own company funds are held at Citibank and are segregated from our clients' funds.
StashAway’s portfolios don’t have any direct exposure to SVB. Given that SVB is part of US and global indexes such as the S&P 500, our portfolios have an insignificant exposure to SVB equity and bonds. To put that exposure into context, our highest-risk portfolio with a StashAway Risk Index of 36 (SRI 36), has a maximum exposure of 0.0062% via broad markets ETFs such as IVV, ISAC, and AGG. In our last reoptimisation, ERAA™ under-weighted US financials in its portfolios, as the sector has historically underperformed in rising interest rate environments and is sensitive to any economic slowdown.
Markets are shaky, so should I just keep my funds in cash?
Staying out of the markets with the goal of entering at the “right time” is not advisable. Timing the market is close to impossible, and in the long-term you will be rewarded for sticking to your plan, continuing to dollar cost average your investments in core portfolios. For the portion of your net worth that you want to keep as cash, remember that interest rates are still rising, making it even more important to manage your cash well to help beat inflation’s effects.
🎓Jargon buster: Bank run
A bank run happens when many of a bank’s clients withdraw their deposits from the bank at the same time. Usually, this happens when clients worry that the bank will become insolvent (meaning its liabilities – or what it owes depositors – exceeds its assets).
And that’s what happened to Silicon Valley Bank. After it announced that it had sold securities at a $1.8 billion USD loss, and was looking to raise more money to cover a decline in its deposits, its stock price plunged and customers began to withdraw their money. Notably, customers withdrew $42 billion USD within a single day last week, leaving the bank with a negative cash balance of $1 billion USD.
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