Weekly Buzz: What the big money expects for markets for the rest of 2026

We're almost halfway through 2026, and it's tested a few nerves with the conflict in Iran, an oil price spike, and an S&P 500 that’s still grinding to fresh highs. To see where the big money sees things heading next, here's a rundown of their mid-year outlooks.

What’s going on here?

• Morgan Stanley is backing the US, and keeping an eye on AI debt. The bank expects global growth to ease from around 3.4% in 2025 to 3.2% this year, before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. It sees Big Tech's AI spending as the engine for US growth. The catch: that same spending is funded by a mountain of borrowing. If those bonds pile up faster than the returns they generate, credit markets will feel the strain.

• JPMorgan Private Bank is big on AI. The bank describes an "AI supercycle," a long-term expansion it views as hard to derail. For anyone rattled by the recent swings, they offer a steadying data point: investing in stocks when Wall Street's "fear index," the VIX, climbs above 30, as it did around the strikes on Iran, has historically delivered gains near 12% over the following six months.
• Fidelity says the US is holding up strong. Despite higher oil prices, US growth has held firm, manufacturing has picked up, and the job market has stayed steady. American firms delivered double-digit earnings growth last quarter, and more than 80% of S&P 500 names beat expectations on both profit and revenue. That's a strong scorecard, and a big reason US markets sit near record highs.

In Other News: The biggest IPO in history is days away

SpaceX lists on the Nasdaq on 12 June under the ticker SPCX. The company plans to price shares at $135, raising around $75 billion at an implied valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion. That would be the largest IPO on record by far, more than doubling Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion debut in 2019.

The listing is the clearest public signal yet that the commercial space economy has grown into an investable sector. Starlink's satellite internet business generates recurring revenue, and Falcon 9 has pushed launch costs down significantly. A public listing puts a market price on something private investors have valued for years.

The index rules are already set and both Nasdaq and FTSE Russell updated their eligibility criteria ahead of the listing and SpaceX is expected to join the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days of its debut, and the Russell indices within five. Every passive fund tracking those benchmarks must buy in almost immediately. The S&P 500 is a different story: S&P Dow Jones Indices this week rejected all proposed rule changes, meaning SpaceX cannot enter until it has 12 months of trading history and four consecutive quarters of profit.

Every dollar raised in this IPO goes back into the business. SpaceX has structured this as an all-primary deal, with proceeds earmarked for AI compute infrastructure, launch vehicles, and satellite expansion. The company estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion across space, connectivity, and AI ($26.5 trillion of that is in AI alone). SpaceX is still loss-making, and investors should be comfortable with the volatility that comes with a name like this. 

(For an easy way of adding exposure to space in your portfolio, see Flexible Portfolios.)

What’s the takeaway?

AI is the common denominator. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Fidelity all credit AI-related spending as the engine keeping markets moving. SpaceX's IPO pitch is built on the same foundation: orbital compute, satellite connectivity, and AI. Alphabet's $84.8 billion equity raise this week, earmarked largely for AI infrastructure, is the most recent data point.

The caveats are consistent: sticky inflation, a Federal Reserve with less room to maneuver, and geopolitical shocks that could send energy prices higher. None of the three banks forecast a market downturn. The consensus is clear: stay invested. 

(For a ready-made portfolio that invests in the US and globally, see General Investing.)

These articles were written in collaboration with Finimize.