StashAway’s H1 2026 Returns

After a volatile start to the year, the second quarter of 2026 brought a rotation back into risk assets. Global equities rallied on strong tech earnings, led by AI-related stocks. Gold, which had climbed to a record high early in the year, gave back those gains while US interest rates repriced higher under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the dollar strengthened. (Whether the risk rally can hold into the second half is the question we take up in our 2026 Mid-Year Outlook: Half-time for the bulls.)

These dynamics produced a wide divergence in returns across asset classes, as illustrated below in Chart 1. Global equities ended the first half up 11.4%, recovering from a drawdown of about 5% in early April. Ultra-short-dated US Treasuries – which function as cash equivalents – returned 1.8%, and global bonds finished roughly flat at -0.4%.Gold saw the biggest reversal, from rapid year-to-date gains of more than 20% in Q1 to a 7.4% loss by the end of H1. 

Chart 1: Equities ended H1 2026 ahead as gold pulled back

Source: StashAway, Bloomberg; Note: Data in USD terms for the year to 30 June.

Against this backdrop, our General Investing portfolios delivered strong returns through H1 and outperformed their benchmarks across all risk levels over the period. General Investing Portfolios gained 5.6% on average – ranging from 1.1% for the lowest-risk portfolio to 11.4% for the highest-risk – an outperformance of 0.5 percentage points on average versus traditional equity-bond benchmarks, illustrated in Chart 2. Its outperformance was most apparent during the sell-off toward the end of Q1, when GISA portfolios led their benchmarks by more than 2 percentage points on average. That advantage came from asset allocation: a diversified mix of global equities, bonds, gold, and cash equivalents, with gold leading early and equities carrying returns as they rallied.

Chart 2: General Investing portfolios after fee performance outperformed their benchmarks by 0.5 ppt on average in H1

Source: StashAway. Note: Data in USD terms for the year to 30 June 2026. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

These portfolios remain driven by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA™) investment framework. By positioning portfolios across global equities, bonds, and gold based on the prevailing macro environment, ERAA™ helps manage risks such as inflation shocks and geopolitical uncertainty while ensuring portfolios remain broadly diversified and resilient across market cycles.

Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed to-date 2026:

• General Investing and Goal-based Investing (These two portfolios share similar asset allocation)
• Thematic Portfolios

General Investing portfolios

StashAway's General Investing  portfolios, guided by ERAA™, delivered positive returns across all risk levels through a volatile first half, staying ahead of their equity-bond benchmarks. The portfolios returned TH: 5.6% on average in USD terms after fees (11.4% in THB terms), compared to average benchmark returns of 5.0% in USD terms.

Over the rolling 12 months to 30 June 2026, the portfolios also delivered strong after fees returns across all risk levels, with gains of 13.1% on average in USD terms (15.7% in THB terms), versus 12.4% for their respective same-risk benchmarks in USD terms.

Our asset allocation captured the rebound in risk assets

Our portfolios were positioned to take part in the recovery in Q2. As risk assets rallied, equity exposure across regions and sectors drove returns, while shorter-dated bonds added stability as yields rose. Diversification across asset classes keeps the portfolios resilient through changing market conditions, which matters more over time than the result of any single quarter.

Equities were the largest contributor over H1, with a smaller positive contribution from fixed income. Gold detracted modestly, having given back its early-year gain during the second quarter, though it remains a valuable diversifying asset in portfolios over a longer time horizon.

Global and sector exposures led equity returns

Equities were the biggest driver of returns in the first half, and the gains were broad-based. Information technology was the single largest contributor as the AI investment cycle lifted the sector, which gained around 30% over the half. Global equities ex-US were the largest equity contributor after technology and held up better than US exposures during the Q1 sell-off. Broad global equities and the S&P 500 further contributed as markets rebounded. Currency-hedged Japan equities also supported returns, with the hedge shielding them from a weaker yen. (For more, see CIO Insights: Japan – still rising.) Indian equities were the main detractor and suffered their worst first half since 2022 as heavy foreign outflows weighed on returns.

Market leadership stayed historically narrow through the half. The ten largest companies made up nearly 40% of the S&P 500, and semiconductors alone approached a fifth of the index – their highest share on record.

Zooming out across the longer 12-month period, leadership broadened: global equities excluding the US and broad global equities were the largest contributors, followed by Information Technology and the broad S&P 500, while industrials, Japan and aerospace and defence played a bigger role than they had year-to-date.

Bonds contributed positively, led by ultra-short duration

Our exposures to fixed income made a small positive contribution to returns. Ultra-short duration US Treasuries – which function as cash equivalents – were the largest contributor within the asset class, with ex-US investment-grade and emerging market bonds adding support. Global government and aggregate bonds detracted modestly as yields rose.

Bond markets repriced for stickier inflation worldwide as an energy-price shock lifted global inflation. The European Central Bank delivered its first rate hike since 2023, and some market participants even began pricing a possible US rate rise by year-end. (We believe that is premature.) The portfolios' shorter-dated exposures cushioned the impact, as short-duration bonds are less sensitive to rising yields.

The dynamics were similar over the 12 months: ultra-short duration US Treasuries led the contribution, followed by emerging market bonds, high-yield credit, and inflation-linked bonds. Global government bonds were the only fixed-income detractor over the period.

Gold gave back early gains but stayed a long-term diversifier

Gold detracted modestly over the first half – but only after a dramatic round trip. It set a series of record highs early in 2026, trading above $5,500 USD an ounce in late January. It then fell back towards $4,000 USD an ounce by late June, closing the half down 7.4%. The reversal came as the US dollar strengthened and real yields rose under new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh. Momentum-driven profit-taking, after gold's exceptional 2025, amplified both the run-up and the pullback. Notably, gold did not rally during the US-Iran conflict, which the World Gold Council called an exception rather than the rule for the traditional safe haven asset.

Over the 12 months, gold was one of the largest contributors to portfolio returns. Steady central-bank buying, running near 1,000 tonnes a year since 2022, underpinned demand, while elevated government spending kept longer-term inflation risks in focus. Together, these reinforce gold's role as a long-term diversifier, even after a weaker second quarter.

Thematic Portfolios

Thematic Portfolios offer direct exposure to long-term structural trends, from artificial intelligence and digitalisation to healthcare and the energy transition. That targeted exposure can make them more sensitive to market cycles. This half, that showed up in a wide spread of returns across the four portfolios, though all four finished the first half in positive territory. Of the four themes, Technology Enablers led, driven by the growth in semiconductors and artificial intelligence in the first half of the year, while Environment and Cleantech was the strongest performer across the 12 month period.

Technology Enablers 

The Technology Enablers portfolios returned TH: 13.7% on average in USD terms (19.9% in THB terms) after fees for the year to end-June.

Over the past 12 months, they were up TH: 21.3% on average in USD terms (24.0% in THB terms) after fees.

Semiconductors, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity led the gains, with blockchain adding further support, while software was the main detractor in the first half of 2026. The same drivers held over the 12 months – semiconductors and artificial intelligence – were again the largest contributors, and software the only detractor. The rally reflected the AI investment cycle driving this year's market. As we noted in our 2026 Mid-Year Outlook: Half-time for the bulls, the tech sector gained around 30% over the half. A strong, AI-led earnings season drew attention back to the companies building out AI infrastructure, and record data-centre spending kept demand for chips high.

Future of Consumer Tech

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios returned TH: 0.9% on average in USD terms (6.4% in THB terms) after fees for the year to end-June.

Over the past 12 months, they were up TH: 3.2% on average in USD terms (5.5% in THB terms) after fees.

Future mobility was the standout contributor over both the first half and the 12 months, while fintech and gaming and esports were the main detractors in each period. Gains this half were concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related names, which left more cyclical, consumer-facing sub-sectors such as fintech and gaming behind. Future mobility was the exception, benefiting from the same electrification and automation trends powering the energy transition.

Healthcare Innovation

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios returned TH: 3.0% on average in USD terms (8.6% in THB terms) after fees for the year to end-June.

Over the past 12 months, they were up TH: 18.8% on average in USD terms (21.4% in THB terms) after fees.

Biotechnology and pharmaceuticals drove returns over both the first half and the 12 months, while medical devices were the largest detractor in each period. Biotechnology led a broad recovery across healthcare, supported by a strong revival in biopharma dealmaking, expectations of lower interest rates, and growing use of AI in drug discovery. Medical devices lagged that rebound.

Environment and Cleantech

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios returned TH: 12.1% on average in USD terms (18.2% in THB terms) after fees for the year to end-June.

Over the past 12 months, they were up TH: 24.3% on average in USD terms (27.0% in THB terms) after fees.

Future mobility, clean energy and smart grid infrastructure led the gains over both the first half and the 12 months, with uranium miners adding support in each period. The theme has been reshaped by the same trend driving technology stocks: surging electricity demand from AI data centres. That demand has revived interest in nuclear power as a clean, reliable way to meet rising power needs, while also supporting clean energy and grid infrastructure.

Disclaimers:

Our same-risk benchmarks are proxied by FTSE All-World Index for Growth and FTSE World Government Bond TRI for Protective. Find our investment policy and performance of model portfolios here.

Model portfolio returns are expressed net of management fee, custodian fees and other related expenses but before withholding taxes, capital gain taxes. and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.

As we operate with a progressive management fee structure, the management fee used in the model portfolio return calculation reflects the average fee effectively charged by the company. Full details of fees and expenses charged for services under the investment policy can be found at https://www.stashaway.co.th/th-TH/pricing.

Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.

Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice. Foreign investments are subject to currency fluctuations.

This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.

This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.