After a turbulent first half, the third quarter of 2026 brought further gains for global equities, but little relief for bonds amid rising global yields. Stocks built on their earlier recovery, while gold regained some ground after its sharp pullback in H1.
By the end of September, equity markets were firmly ahead for the year, while bonds and gold remained in negative territory, as illustrated in Exhibit 1 below.
Despite the uneven backdrop, our General Investing portfolios remained resilient over a longer horizon, returning 7.2% on average in USD terms after fees (11% in THB terms) over the past 12 months (versus 6.8% for their benchmarks in USD terms) and 4.3% in USD terms after fees (11.1% in THB terms) over the first nine months of 2026 (versus 4.6% in USD terms).
The third quarter itself was more challenging: losses in bonds and parts of our equity allocation led to a modest 1.2% pullback on average in USD terms (-0.2% in THB terms) (versus -0.5%), while gold helped cushion the decline.
Our General Investing portfolios remain driven by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA™) investment framework. ERAA™ continues to place us in an inflationary-growth regime, with economic growth holding firm and inflation staying elevated.
In this environment, we favour equities and gold, with an emphasis on technology as the AI theme develops, and towards cyclical sectors that benefit from economic expansion. Bonds still offer a source of income, but elevated long-term interest rates make their return outlook more challenging. For more on global bond markets, see CIO Insights: Three forces behind higher bond yields.
Through strategic positioning across global equities, bonds, and gold based on the prevailing macro environment, ERAA™ helps manage risks such as inflation shocks and geopolitical uncertainty, while ensuring our portfolios remain broadly diversified and resilient across market cycles.
Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed in Q3 and over the past 12 months:
- General Investing portfolios
- Thematic Portfolios
General Investing
StashAway’s General Investing portfolios, guided by ERAA™, returned -1.2% in USD terms (-0.2% in THB terms) on average in Q3, compared with an average decline of -0.5% in USD terms for their equity-bond benchmarks.
Despite the quarterly pullback, the portfolios remained resilient over a longer horizon, returning 7.2% in USD terms (11% in THB terms) on average over the 12 months to 30 September 2026, ahead of their equity-bond benchmarks’ average return of 6.8% in USD terms.
Equities drove portfolio gains over the past year
Our equity allocations were a modest drag in Q3, as losses in US industrials and aerospace and defence outweighed gains in broader global equities, US healthcare and Japanese stocks. Over the past 12 months, however, equities remained the main driver of portfolio gains, led by global stocks and US technology. Healthy corporate earnings continue to support the broader equity backdrop, despite the more uneven quarter.
Gold’s Q3 recovery helped cushion a pullback
Gold regained some ground in Q3 following its first-half decline, helping to cushion weakness elsewhere in the portfolios. Over the past 12 months, it also contributed positively alongside equities, highlighting the value of holding a diversified mix of assets. We continue to prefer gold over government bonds as a defensive allocation amid elevated public debt and persistent fiscal deficits, with ongoing central bank buying reinforcing our constructive view.
Higher yields weighed on global bonds
Bonds were the main drag in Q3, with global government and broader bond exposures weighing on returns. Inflation concerns and expectations of tighter central-bank policy pushed yields higher, putting pressure on bond prices. Bonds also detracted over the past 12 months, although ultra-short-term US Treasuries provided a cushion in both periods, helped by their lower sensitivity to interest-rate changes.
Thematic Portfolios
Our Thematic Portfolios focus on the long-term shifts reshaping the economy, from AI and digitalisation to healthcare innovation and the energy transition. These themes develop over years, with each progressing at its own pace. These portfolios’ targeted exposures can lead to more pronounced short-term swings, making a longer-term perspective important.
Technology Enablers
The Technology Enablers portfolios returned 4.4% in USD terms (5.4% in THB terms) on average in Q3, extending their longer-term gains to 18.8% in USD terms (23% in THB terms) on average over the past 12 months.
Cloud computing, cybersecurity and software led gains in Q3, more than offsetting weakness in robotics and semiconductors. The longer-term picture remained strong: AI and big data and semiconductors were the main drivers over the past 12 months, supported by cybersecurity. Software’s improvement in Q3 helped narrow its losses, although it was still a small drag over the full 12 months. For more on software, see CIO Insights: Ctrl+Alt+Delete on software?
Future of Consumer Tech
The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios returned -0.1% in USD terms (0.9% in THB terms) in Q3, leaving performance broadly flat in USD terms. Over the past 12 months, returns were -1.5% in USD terms (2% in THB terms).
Gains in internet companies and the video game industry in Q3 were offset by weakness in future mobility and fintech, with short-term US Treasuries helping to steady returns at some risk levels. Over the past 12 months, future mobility was a positive driver, but losses in fintech and video games outweighed those gains over that period. Unlike the other themes, Future of Consumer Tech remained slightly negative over that longer period.
Healthcare Innovation
The Healthcare Innovation portfolios returned 2.7% in USD terms (3.8% in THB terms) in Q3, building on solid longer-term gains of 16.6% in USD terms (20.8% in THB terms) over the past 12 months.
Biotechnology led gains in Q3, with medical devices and pharmaceuticals also contributing. However, medical devices remained a drag over the past 12 months. But stronger gains in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals more than offset that weakness, keeping overall returns firmly positive.
Environment and Cleantech
The Environment and Cleantech portfolios returned -6.5% in USD terms (-5.5% in THB terms) in a difficult Q3. Despite the pullback, longer-term returns remained solid at 7% in USD terms (10.8% in THB terms) over the past 12 months.
Clean energy and future mobility were the largest detractors in Q3, with smart-grid infrastructure, uranium and water-related companies also lower. Short-term US Treasuries provided a small cushion for some risk levels. Over the past 12 months, however, gains in future mobility, smart-grid infrastructure and clean energy outweighed weakness in water and uranium, leaving the portfolios ahead despite the Q3 setback.
Disclaimers:
Our same-risk benchmarks are proxied by FTSE All-World Index for Growth and FTSE World Government Bond TRI for Protective. Find our investment policy and performance of model portfolios here.
Model portfolio returns are expressed net of management fee, custodian fees and other related expenses but before withholding taxes, capital gain taxes, and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.
As we operate with a progressive management fee structure, the management fee used in the model portfolio return calculation reflects the average fee effectively charged by the company. Full details of fees and expenses charged for services under the investment policy can be found at https://www.stashaway.co.th/th-TH/pricing.
Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.
Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice. Foreign investments are subject to currency fluctuations.
This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.
This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.